Counterpoint: Apple’s first foldable could take 25% of the market with up to 6 million units in 2026
Counterpoint Research forecasts up to 6 million foldable iPhone shipments in 2026 — about 25% share and No. 2 behind Samsung — even with a short selling window and early supply limits.
Counterpoint Research says Apple’s first foldable iPhone could ship up to 6 million units in 2026, enough for roughly 25% of the global foldable smartphone market and a No. 2 ranking behind Samsung, according to the firm’s latest Foldable Smartphone Market Forecast and coverage by 9to5Mac.
The forecast, in numbers
Counterpoint’s public summary (dated September 7, 2026) states:
- Cumulative global foldable shipments are set to surpass 100 million lifetime units by the end of 2026 — the category’s eighth year since 2019.
- Apple is forecast at up to 6 million foldable iPhone shipments in 2026 → ~25% share, No. 2 behind Samsung at ~38%, ahead of Huawei at ~22%.
- Foldable growth is expected to accelerate to about 37% year over year in 2027, with Apple’s share potentially rising toward ~40% on a full year of sales.
- Foldables still represent only about 2% of the overall smartphone market.
Associate Director Liz Lee notes that early supply for Apple’s first foldable will “inevitably be limited” during the production ramp, which caps the upper end of the 2026 shipment forecast even if the product is unveiled this week.
How this differs from price and readiness coverage
This is a market-share / units beat, not another price or readiness rehash. Separate reporting has focused on a possible $2,199 starting price and Tim Cook’s role in the project — see our Cook / Bloomberg foldable price piece — while iPhone 18 Pro pre-order timing remains a slab-Pro utility story.
Treat Counterpoint’s unit and share figures as research-firm forecasts, not Apple guidance. Product name, price, and availability remain unconfirmed until Apple speaks at Surprise and Shine.
Sources: Counterpoint Research, 9to5Mac.