Jeff Pu: iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders look lukewarm — Pro builds cut to 72M

• U.S. Pro Max 256GB / 512GB across colors, plus Burgundy 1TB, show roughly 3–4 week waits.
• China Pro Max Glacier 256GB / 512GB: about 2–3 weeks.
• Black and Glacier 1TB Pro Max: closer to 1–2 weeks in the U.S.
• Silver 1TB Pro Max, most 2TB Pro Max configs, and nearly every iPhone 18 Pro are available immediately for Friday’s launch — with Burgundy 256GB Pro the main Pro exception.

Pu attributes softer demand to limited upgrades and higher pricing, especially at large storage tiers. U.S. starting prices remain $1,199 (Pro) and $1,299 (Pro Max), climbing to $2,399 / $2,499 at 2TB.

Production cuts

On the supply side, Pu lowered iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max production to 72 million units, citing constraints around the new variable aperture camera. He separately cut his 2026 iPhone Duo build from 7 million to 6 million, blaming hinge production challenges.

He also expects some Pro Max buyers to wait for Duo (pre-order October 16, availability October 23, from $1,999). The note keeps a Hold rating and a $369 price target.

How to read it

Short waits can mean weak demand or comfortable supply — Pu is arguing the former, and backing it with lower build targets. 9to5Mac notes the same caveat: ship times measure the gap between supply and demand, and some would-be Pro buyers may simply be waiting for Duo. Treat Apple’s live ship estimates as the operational guide for when your order arrives; treat Pu’s note as one sell-side view of how the cycle is shaping up.

Sources: MacRumors, 9to5Mac, GF Securities via those reports.